Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 11.875190 13.885406 16.087895 18.674195 21.621739 24.869910 28.713738
2024-10-20 8.563019 11.236978 14.466256 18.625524 23.809683 30.025020 38.003765
2024-10-27 6.509946 9.450241 13.312407 18.690643 25.908562 35.172790 47.859254
2024-11-03 5.547962 8.774354 13.321680 20.074280 29.694857 42.730587 61.508371
2024-11-10 4.713936 8.058241 13.079516 20.971530 32.815752 49.628506 74.908753
2024-11-17 4.042328 7.422945 12.799860 21.693117 35.669673 56.333866 88.582264
2024-11-24 3.329807 6.561671 11.999515 21.446662 36.959512 60.791208 99.294699
2024-12-01 2.673745 5.652971 10.952093 20.610045 37.153460 63.513894 107.520807
2024-12-08 2.180658 4.933814 10.097327 19.942674 37.484050 66.392403 116.120666
2024-12-15 1.884589 4.533591 9.743433 20.082572 39.150721 71.509237 128.630438
2024-12-22 1.587831 4.066828 9.182687 19.750746 39.920619 75.150300 138.932594
2024-12-29 1.470825 3.967314 9.326374 20.762831 43.199903 83.302157 157.377491
2025-01-05 1.291136 3.696119 9.095953 21.050577 45.239335 89.593655 173.361791
2025-01-12 1.125629 3.423570 8.822350 21.221527 47.088644 95.730135 189.610373
2025-01-19 0.983243 3.175866 8.562145 21.382997 48.931459 102.001113 206.570035
2025-01-26 0.945555 3.201541 8.939002 22.977490 53.831719 114.371668 235.543701
2025-02-02 0.877392 3.125244 9.057599 24.003166 57.641601 124.926163 261.815101
2025-02-09 0.805435 3.020155 9.086677 24.822066 61.082596 134.999478 287.810687
2025-02-16 0.693716 2.762322 8.678489 24.546677 62.110246 140.348236 305.047608
2025-02-23 0.573199 2.439593 8.036321 23.604525 61.542827 142.403848 315.943023
2025-03-02 0.478524 2.174861 7.502256 22.852207 61.313631 145.109305 328.267240
2025-03-09 0.425139 2.043463 7.328099 23.010138 63.222261 152.435658 350.391888
2025-03-16 0.364462 1.863935 6.974842 22.635863 63.810416 156.958726 367.004759